Week 3

Weekend 3, November 3-4
Labor's housing plan for first home buyers generated some good press over the weekend and once again saw K. Rudd on the front foot against a tyring Coalition attack (yes, I'm looking forward to the cricket starting). The plan, dubbed the first home saver account, will enable first home buyers to deposit up to $5000 of pre tax earnings into the account and be taxed at only 15%. The money can only be accessed after four years and will only be released if it used towards a deposit on a home. Regardless of the merit or otherwise of the scheme, Labor continue to respond to the concerns of the electorate with innovative policy responses. Verdict - a win for Labor
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 5, Labor 11

Friday November 2
Campaigning was once again put on hold today while both leaders attended the funeral of SAS soldier Sergeant Matthew Locke. Sergeant Locke was shot and killed during a gun battle with Taliban fighters in Oruzgan province, Afghanistan. It was the second funeral of an Australian soldier attended by both leaders since the election campaign began. Verdict - a draw
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 5, Labor 10

Thursday November 1
Will me-toosim enter Australia's political lexicon in the same way that 'L.A.W Law', 'The Recession we had to have' and 'Core and Non-Core' have? After yesterday it's almost a certainty. Yesterday Kevin Rudd adopted nearly all of the government's plans for the aged and pensioners. Labor's announcement came on the same day that John Howard launched a scheme for GP super clinics that seemed strangely familiar. The familiarity probably has something to do with the fact the plan is almost identical to Labor's. I've started to wonder if Labor and Liberal could form a more effective coalition than the Libs and the Nats. Verdict - a win for The Fishing Party, because at least they're proposing something different. And fishers have feelings too dammit!
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 4.5, Labor 9.5, TFP 1

Wednesday October 31
Tony Abbott grabbed the headlines today for all the wrong reasons. He was forced to apologise to Bernie Banton for suggesting that the mesothelioma sufferer was not pure of heart. Then Abbott was half an hour late for a televised debate with his Labor opponent Nicola Roxon. Despite having a legitimate reason for his lateness, the image of the health minister's empty chair during the first half of the debate was an embaressing one. He was then caught by the cameras swearing as he shook Roxon's hand. Abbott's indicrections overshadowed a major Coalition health announcement and only served to aid Labor's criticisms of the government as arrogant and out of touch. Verdict - a Labor win.
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 4.5, Labor 9.5

Tuesday October 30
The past few days have probably been Labor’s worst of the campaign, but the Coalition has been unable to capitalise because of its own Turnbull inspired ructions. On climate change policy Kevin Rudd sounds strikingly similar to J W Howard; another sign to voters that there is little difference between the two parties. Both have now publicly stated that any post-Kyoto climate agreement must include targets for developing nations in order for Australia to be a signatory. This may enrage environmental activists but their votes are more than likely to head in Bob Brown’s direction. Rudd’s me-tooism might not make for the campaign fireworks that we all know and love, but for a man looking to depose one of the nation’s most successful politicians it makes sense. Verdict – a draw.
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 4.5, Labor 8.5

Monday October 29
Kevin Rudd was in Queensland today announcing an injection of funds aimed at protecting the Great Barrier Reef. Labor has been busy emphasising its green credentials at the beginning of this week, a task not made easy by their environment spokesman Peter Garrett. In interviews with the Fin Review and ABC Radio earlier in the day, Garrett had said that Labor would sign a global agreement on limiting greenhouse emissions even if developing countries were not signatories to the same agreement. After sustained Coalition attacks over his statement, Garrett was forced to make an embarrassing clarification late in the day. The shenanigans raise legitimate concerns about Garrett’s ability to manage the critical environment portfolio should Labor win government on November 24. However, despite Labor’s blundering, the Coalition appears to be in even more disarray with Malcolm Turnbull missing in action following the suggestion over the weekend that his office was responsible for leaking the story that he had urged the PM to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. The Verdict – a draw.
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 4, Labor 8

Something to make you laugh

Some people are too clever.....and have too much time on their hands

Election 2007 - Week 2

Weekend 2, 27-28 October 2007
Interest rates and Malcolm Turnbull grabbed headlines this weekend. Labor have Howard on the ropes over his promise at the 2004 election to keep interest rates at record lows. The suggestion that Malcolm Turnbull, in an attempt to improve his green cred in Wentworth, may have leaked the story that he urged the PM to ratify Kyoto has placed coalition disharmony in the spotlight. The Libs are spending too much time on the defensive as Labor continues to set the agenda. The signs for Howard get more ominous by the day. Verdict - a Labor win
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 3.5, Labor 7.5

Thursday 25 October, 2007
As expected the inflation results dominated the start of the day. However, Kevin Rudd's last minute decision to attend the 43rd anniversary of a Tasmanian senior citizens club soon shifted the story of the day. Apparently Rudd's arrival mid-way through the celebrations put some members of the seniors' choir off-side. Baritone David Vowles felt compelled to dish out the best abuse of the campaign thus far, calling Rudd and the Labor candidate for Braddon "ignorant bastards" for politicising the celebrations. It was a welcome distraction to an otherwise uneventful day.

However, the cut and thrust of politics was again put into sombre perspective this evening with the news from Afghanistan that another Australian soldier had been killed in action. I'd expect the campaign to be pushed aside over the weekend as the nation comes to terms with the loss of the second soldier in as many weeks in Afghanistan. Verdict - A draw
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 3.5, Labor 6.5

Wednesday 24 October, 2007
Today's campaigning was overshadowed by the release of the latest inflation figures. It now looks certain that the Reserve Bank will lift interest rates when it meets on Melbourne Cup day, Nov 6. It will be the sixth rate rise since the 2004 election when John Howard promised to keep interest rates at record lows. A rates rise so close to polling day would be disastrous for the government and could see the Labor party celebrating no matter which horse in first past the post on November 6. Verdict - A Labor Victory
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 3, Labor 6
One of Australia's best political journalists, Dennis Shanahan analyses the inflation figures for The Australian here.

Tuesday 23 October, 2007
It was a day when Labor's 'message' was disrupted by, of all people, Kyle Sandilands, and the day Kevin Rudd demonstrated that he is just like any other politician. For those who held Rudd up as an icon of progressive politics, today was a day they would rather forget.

On a morning visit to the Sydney studios of 2Day FM, Rudd was asked by Sandilands whether he was a supporter of gay marriage. He's not, and the media were pushing him from the moment he left the studio. He looked particularly uncomfortable when asked by journalists if homosexual couples should have the right to adopt a child.

What was supposed to be a relaxed pitch for 'yoof' vote very quickly became the dominant issue of the day and disrupted what would have otherwise been a Labor victory.
You can listen to the 2Day interview here:
mms://66.70.119.243/kj_071023_kevin_rudd1.wma

Verdict - a tie
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 3, Labor 5

Monday 22 October, 2007
Another positive day for Labor with Kevin Rudd enjoying the headlines after his performance in Sunday night's debate. He appears strengthened by the victory and was at his best when he challenged Howard and Costello to a joint debate. The big challenge for both parties will be keeping our attention as the long campaign drags on. It's been just over a week and already I have a stitch and a blister - the finish line seems painfully far away. Verdict - A Labor win.
Cumulative Tally - Coalition 2.5, Labor 4.5

The Showdown begins

Apologies for the long time between posts. Work is busy busy.

So, November 24 is the day 'Australia decides.' I was reminded this week of a scene from the doco 'The War Room' about the Clinton campaign office during his successful presidential push. One of his staff judged each day as a win, lose or draw and I thought it would be interesting to keep my own tally during the campaign. So, here goes.

Weekend 1 October 20-21
The leaders debate dominated coverage of the weekend with most commentators awarding the contest to Rudd. Although I thought the debate too close to call, the night will benefit Rudd more than Howard. Despite a nervous start, Rudd appeared the more forward looking of the two. Howard failed to repudiate the charge that he is yesterday’s man – too often he was caught talking about his achievements during the past 11 years. This did two things. It reminded voters of how long he has been around for and reinforced Rudd’s image as a breath of fresh air and Labor as the party with a plan for Australia’s future.

Howard’s use of the forum to make two policy announcements – one concerning Iraq, the other climate change – was misjudged, particularly given the current mood of the electorate.

Rudd’s willingness to attack Howard’s record as treasurer (under Fraser 1977-83) was the most obvious sign that the Labor Party finally have a leader prepared to take it to the government on issues concerning the economy. Rudd continues to look like a man that is capable of leading the nation, and that is more bad news for the government. The Verdict – a strong win for Labor.
Cumulative Tally - Howard 2.5, Rudd 3.5

Friday, 19 October 2007
Labor's tax announcement today dominated headlines and will give Kevin Rudd a much needed boost as the election heads into its first weekend. The Labor plan, with tax cuts of $31 billion, embraces much of the government's own planned tax cuts and will strengthen Rudd's image as an economic conservative. However, despite the echo, the distinction between the two parties when it comes to tax is an important one. Labor has ignored the government's tax breaks aimed at those who earn over $180 000 per annum and has promised that money to health and education. The money for education will go the parents with children at primary and secondary school, the money for health will aim to reduce waiting lists for elective surgery. The package announced today will play well over the weekend and should have Labor in front come the start of next week. Verdict - Labor's first win of the campaign.
Cumulative Tally - Howard 2.5, Rudd 2.5


Thursday, 18 October 2007
Another day where neither party made significant progress in the race for our 'hearts and minds.' The issue of this Sunday's debate continues to simmer and demonstrates the power in incumbency. Howard is able to dictate his terms and Rudd can do little but go along with him. I still think he could be attacking Howard's insistence on only one debate so early in the campaign. Labor looks shaky on tax. The government's attacks on Labor's union links don't seem to be making much of a dent though. Verdict - another draw.
Cumulative Tally - Howard 2.5, Rudd 1.5


Wednesday, 17 October 2007
The funeral of Trooper David Pearce, killed last week in Afghanistan, meant that John Howard and Kevin Rudd were in Brisbane today. The soldier's funeral also seemed to take some of the spark out of the sparring that Howard and Rudd have engaged in during the first week of the campaign. Peter Costello launched a new Liberal advertisement that draws attention to the number of Labor shadow ministers with union links. Costello was particularly scathing when describing Julia Gillard's work for a socialist organisation when she was an industrial lawyer. Expect the attacks on Gillard to intensify as the campaign continues. Rudd announced plans to encourage nurses back into the workforce, but did so in a hospital that was manged by a local board - the Coalition model derided by Labor. Overall though an unremarkable day. Verdict - Draw
Cumulative Tally - Howard 2, Rudd 1

Tuesday, 16 October 2007.
Rudd announces a Labor plan to release more land on the fringes of major cities to combat housing prices. The plan was given a lukewarm response from the housing industry. The coalition enjoys continued traction from their tax announcement yesterday. Verdict - Draw
Cumulative Tally - Howard 1.5, Rudd 0.5

Monday, 15 October 2007.
Howard announces massive tax cuts if coalition reelected. The government is on the front foot early but Howard slips late in the day by getting the official interest rate wrong on ACA. Still a good first day for the government. Verdict - A win for Howard.
Cumulative Tally - Howard 1, Rudd 0